ABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing, so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis. Methods Using the SPSS 13. 0 software, we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis (2005-2009), and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2010. The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated. Results The established ARIMA (1, 1, 0) × (0, 1,1)12 model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing. The observed values of 2005-2009 were in the 95% confidence interval of the fitted values, and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6. 31% for 2010. Conclusion ARIMA (1,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing, which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis.
ABSTRACT
Objective To determine the survival rate of HIV/AIDS patients after receiving free antiretroviral treatment in Dehong prefecture, Yunnan province. Methods A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted on all the HIV/AIDS patients aged over 16 years who had started antiretroviral treatment during January 2007 throughout December 2009 in Dehong prefecture.Results A total of 3103 HIV/AIDS patients had received antiretroviral treatment during the study period. Among them, the mean age was (36.0 ± 9.9) years and 62.4% were males. 66.2% of them were infected with HIV through heterosexual transmission, and the mean treatment follow-up time was 21.7 months. Most patients well complied with the treatment, i.e., the average times of not taking the medicine were less than 5 per month. The cumulative survival rate of antiretroviral treatment after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years were 0.95, 0.94, 0.93, 0.92, and 0.92, respectively. Data from the Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis indicated that, after adjustment for age, gender, and marital status, the baseline CD4+T cell counts and transmission route could significantly predicate the rates of survival. Those who were with baseline CD4+T cell counts as 200-350/mm3 were less likely to die of AIDS than those with CD4+T cell counts ＜200/mm3 (Hazard Ratio or HR=0.16, 95%CI:0.09-0.28), and HIV-infected through mother-to-child transmission or routes other than heterosexual transmission were less likely to die of AIDS than through injecting drug use (HR=0.35, 95% CI:0.13-1.00). Conclusion Free antiretroviral treatment had significantly improved the survival of HIV/AIDS patients. Earlier initiation of antiretroviral treatment was likely to have achieved better survival effects.